South Carolina Republican Primary Predictions
Well, I suspect that today may be the day that predictions based on the 2004 Democratic Primary stop working. In 2004, South Carolina. In 2004, South Carolina was one of seven states holding a primary and the winner was from the neighboring state of North Carolina.
That said, I'll continue the predictions based on 2004 with some slight changes to my Iowa and New Hampshire predictions. In New Hampshire, I compared Huntsman to Clark. Huntsman has since dropped out, so perhaps the person left playing the role of Clark is now Gingrich. Also, Gingrich, being from neighboring Georgia may pick up some of Edwards home court advantage.
The other interesting twist is that 2004 there was one black candidate in the race by the time South Carolina came around. That was Al Sharpton, and South Carolina was one of his stronger states. Some considered Sharpton a comic figure in the race, so I'll be equating the Colbert/Cain mashup with Sharpton.
Based on this, Santorum, the young ideologue, if he mirrors Edwards should win with 45% of the vote. Since Santorum is from Pennsylvania instead of North Carolina, he probably won't do was well, but I expect a strong finish from Santorum.
Coming in second in South Carolina in 2004 was the rich Massachusetts politician. If history is any guide, Romney should come in second with around 30% of the vote. Then, coming in third was the black comic figure. Will Cain and Colbert manage to do as well as Sharpton? If so, that could be 10% of the vote. I don't think it will be that high, but it could be interesting.
Next in the rankings were the two remaining Not Kerry Candidates, Clark and Dean. As I've noted before, Dean and Paul seem to be the most alike in this category, so, going by the results from 2004, it should be 7% Gingrich and 5% Paul.
As I noted, South Carolina this time is more different than South Carolina in 2004, so things may not come out as close as they did in New Hampshire and Iowa.